The Nightmare That Keeps Microsoft Awake... Android On The Desktop - Forbes

An Acer Chromebook (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s how it worked as the twenty first century opened. You bought a computer, it had Windows OS on it, and many of you would also buy a copy of Office. Microsoft received a cut on pretty much every consumer computer sold.

Fast forward and while the majority of laptops and desktops still carry ‘the Microsoft tax’ there’s a whole strain of computing that Redmond doesn’t get a slice from. The smartphone and tablet market is one that they would love to be heavily involved in and while they are doing their best, the old frenemy of Apple is nicely established with iOS (and OSX is capturing more ‘large’ computers as time passed) and Google are ruling the roost with Android.

Google, with Android, is the biggest threat to Microsoft. Apple operates on a similar principle to Microsoft – still taking a cut at the point of sale, although in Apple’s case they count hardware and software together, where Microsoft focuses on the software side of things. But Google, with their ‘free’ software, is playing a completely different game. The recurring revenue from users through advertising is the key. The more users in Google’s world, the better Mountain View’s bottom line.

What would be a better way to expand their reach that claim not just the web browser, but the whole desktop?

At the moment Google does have Chrome OS, and a number of hackers, developers, and manufacturers are dabbling with it – Samsung’s Chromebook is one obvious example here. But it is a separate OS to Android. Does Google really need two operating systems?

And here’s the rub, and the worrying thing for Steve Ballmer and Microsoft. If Google rolled their OS efforts behind Android, and worked on a solid desktop distribution for Android, how many manufacturers would be ready to make a switch beyond a single alternative OS machine in their portfolio? How many IT departments would be ready to support the system? How many consumers would feel confident with their computer running the same operating system as their mobile phone?

And isn’t a joint desktop/mobile strategy Microsoft’s approach with Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8 anyway?

Mainstream users won’t make the jump until they can see that the option is viable, that an Android computer will fulfil all their needs, and that it’s not a weird geeky option… in general people need to see other people using the OS to be confident in switching.

A manufacturer is going to need to bite the bullet and commit to Desktop Android, assuming Google go ahead with the project and give it corporate weight (as opposed to a few indie hackers in the company using the famed twenty percent time).

Microsoft are already feeling the pressure from Google as Google Docs reduced the demand for the Office product suite, and that pressure is going to continue. If Google was to go on the offensive and target the desktop and laptop market with the same reckless vigor that they went after the smartphone market and the mobile advertising dollar… that’s going to put a serious dent in Microsoft’s core revenue stream, while bringing in more eyeballs for Google.

I’ve no information on the likelihood if an Android OS will ever have an official desktop version, but then neither does Microsoft. But I’ll put good money on them having considered the possibility, and what it would do to Microsoft’s business model and what the loss of a decent percentage of the OS market would do to them.

Consumers switching away from Windows to Android? For Microsoft that’s the stuff of nightmares.